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Pre-halving bearish flip in crypto crowd sentiment signals Bitcoin (BTC) price surge is coming


‘The masses are always wrong. Wisdom is doing everything that the masses do not do,” said American poet and novelist Charles Bukowski.

That includes crypto, and the crypto crowd is starting to turn bearish on bitcoin (BTC) – a sign that the current sell-off in BTC prices may soon run out.

“Historically, prices move in the opposite direction to mass traders’ expectations,” blockchain analytics platform Santiment said in a market insights post, adding that the market could bottom just before the halving (expected in the next two days) or shortly after can reach.

Data from Santiment shows that mentions of the ‘bull market’ or ‘bull cycle’ on crypto social media have declined since late March. At the same time, the number of mentions of ‘bear market’ or ‘bear cycle’ increased steadily.

Santiment’s Social Trends indicator tracks chatter across Telegram, Reddit, X, and 4Chan to identify keywords or topics that have sparked interest.

“According to the crypto crowd, the #bullmarket has effectively come to an end following #Bitcoin’s -16% market value decline since hitting back from the #AllTimeHigh of $73,600 on March 14. At the same time, #bearmarket entries are increasing,” Santiment said.

The number of mentions for other keywords such as “buy the dip” also indicates that “hopium” – crypto jargon for the hope of a quick recovery and a sustained bull run – has faded among retail investors. Historically, there has been a decline in ‘buy the dip’. ‘ mentions, marks the end of the downward trends.

The declining likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, heightened geopolitical tensions and the timing of US tax payments have weighed on bitcoin this month, leading to a 14% price drop.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value hit a low below $60,000 yesterday before recovering to trade near $61,200 at the time of writing. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which measures the performance of the top 20 digital assets by market capitalization, is down 24% this month.

Bitcoin’s blockchain will implement its fourth mining reward halving on Friday or early Saturday, reducing BTC emissions per block by 50% to 3,125 BTC. Several analysts, including JPMorgan, have warned of a deeper price decline after the quadrennial event, although the long-term consensus is bullish.

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